Sunday, January 25, 2009

Prediction: Cuban Regime Will Fall Within Two Years

The Cuban regime has relied upon the sense of defiance of American imperialism to support its claims to political leadership. The American system can no longer look so convincingly monolithic to average Cubans. Won't the appeal of grasping the power that American voters have, to buck the establishment (whether it be the Clintons or the former WASP elite, be quite appealing to the Cuban people?

Are Castro's admittedly thoughtful words a strong enough brew to hold the Cuban system together, especially in the event of his apparently pending passing?


Nobody can doubt the sincerity of Obama's words when he says he will make his country into a model of freedom, respect for human rights in the world and for the independence of other nations. . .

[But,] despite all the tests he has been put through, Obama has not faced the most important of all.

What will he do when the immense power he has grasped soon proves to be totally useless in overcoming the intractable, opposing contradictions of the (capitalist) system?

The final question may be interesting but I doubt that it will be sufficient to stir the Cuban people to defiance of the United States.


Andres said...

Good use of the article I emailed you! I appreciate your point of view and
I disagree with your premise. I believe that the Cuban regime will evolve not fall. Both Raul and Fidel Castro have indicated an interest in discussing a wide range of issues with the Obama administration. I wholly agree that freedom of speech, the right to assemble and democracy as we know does it not exist in Cuba. I also believe that Cuba has developed many valuable things under Castro such as Universal health care, near universal literacy and highly educated populace that accounts for a very high percentage of Latin America's scientists while making up approximately 2% of the population. Cuba has suffered under the US embargo that makes the cost of third party business with Cuba higher and as a result of documented cases of crop sabotage via diseases and other forms of sabotage. Having a working partner in the U.S will be an enormous change, one that Cuba under Castro has never experienced. This will eliminate the justification for tight state political control on the island and allow for a transition to some form of Democracy. I believe that this evolution will be Cuban in origin, will be facilitated by a constructive dialogue with the Obama administration and maintain many of the values and benefits that Cubans have achieved since 1959. Having visited Cuba in 1997, I know the tremendous human capital that exists there. There is also a pride and independence that I think will lead to a third way similar to that of Europe and maybe the way that the US will be heading: where there is democratic government that engages in significant state intervention in the economy, and high values are placed on cultivating and maintaining the health, welfare and education of the citizens of the Island nation.